I was wrong, and confidence in my ability to analyze has been shattered….

Yesterday, I wrote on this blog:

“I have questioned whether or not a large enough number of Americans had the wherewithal to make a rational choice. But this week, as the end drew nigh, I have relaxed, reassured by the polls, particularly Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com which correctly forecast the last two presidential elections. I am confident that Hillary Clinton will be the next president, the first woman president of the US-eh. In about 12 hours (8:00 PT/11:00 ET), we’ll have a much clearer idea.”

And all day long, I reassured the love of my life that things would turn out okay, at least numerically.

It’s clear on the morning after, that as far as the the popular vote is concerned, Trump didn’t win. Latest totals Wednesday morning show Clinton, thanks to large pluralities in heavily populated New York and California, polled more than 59,647,621 votes to Trump’s 59,438,580. Her margin in this measure is likely to increase as absentee and mail-in ballots are finally counted.

Click graphics to enlarge….

CNN graphic on left Politico graphic on right

But where they really count, the numbers in the Electoral college, in the number of states Trump “won,” and in the number of rural Americans persuaded, Clinton trailed badly.

As Ana Marie Cox commented on Trevor Noah’s (live) Daily Show—even before Trump’s numbers passed the 270 EC vote threshold, many American “…working class white men… have traded their health care and their economic opportunity for the right to be more a little more explicit in their racism….” (Comedy Central, Nov. 8, 2016).

It’s unlikely that the results can be explained this easily. There will be a great deal of thoughtful analysis devoted, as there was to Mitt Romney’s loss to Obama in 2012, to understanding why Clinton failed to persuade enough Americans that she deserved their support.

I’ll be studying carefully, too.
For the moment, that’s all I can do.


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